Ruby/Hagupit blev ikke til nogen ekstraordinær tyfon. At den kunne blive var sandsynligt på et niveau, der retfærdiggør de initiativer der blev taget.
Op mod 800.000 blev evakueret, omkring 5% procent af befolkningen i de berørte områder. I den forbindelse er det regnvejr der følger en tropisk cyclon, som er den korrekte betegnelse, en større risiko, fordi de store regnmængder kan udløse jordskred.
Jeg fik i en tidliger post skrevet, at kulturmarxistiske Politiken opgav tallet (på det tidspunkt) til 500.000, hvilket jeg stillede spørgmålstegn ved. Politiken har formentlig været korrekte på det punkt.
Politiken fungerede desuden reklame søjle for Red Barnet, en temmelig tvivlsom organisation. Det vender vi tilbage til i en kommende post.
Omkring tropiske cycloner og hvorfor de ofte ender i Visayas og går i land i Samar/Leyte området er der en udemærket artikel i sunstar, hvor en metrolog, chefen for den lokale vejtstation i Cebu, Pagasa Mactan Chief Al Quiblat, skærer de basale forhold ud i pap.
“Tropical cyclone is the generic name for cyclonic system, which has three types or categories, such as tropical depression, which has 30 to 60 kph(winds); tropical storm, which has 60 to less than 118 kph; and typhoon, which has 118 kph and above,” said Quiblat.
He said that as far as the Philippines is concerned, there is no such thing as a super typhoon. But there is a proposal in their Central Office in Manila to declare a super typhoon.
Quiblat said the fact that the country faces the Pacific Ocean helps explain why the country has an average of 20 tropical cyclones every year.
Quiblat said that if the tropical cyclones will happen in November and December, there is a 60 to 70 percent chance that these will hit the Visayas. He cited Nitang in 1984, Ruping in 1990 and Yolanda in 2013.
He said that the factors for a tropical cyclone are: the temperature of the sea beyond 26 degrees Celsius and the Coriolis force or the force caused by the earth’s rotation.
He said that if the temperature of the sea produces enough amount of latent heat (“hinungaw sa dagat”) or water vapor, that can develop into a cyclone.
Vil man gøre sig bekendt med Filippinernes metreologisk historie så er denne artikel stedet., Typhoons in the Philippine Islands, 1566 – 1900
Within the last years the population and the value of the properties in Tropical Cyclone (TC) prone areas have increased dramatically. This has caused more attention to be placed on the characterization of TC climatologies and the identification of the role that factors, such as the main teleconnection patterns, may play in TC variability. Due to the involved timescales, the instrumental records have demonstrated too short to provide a complete picture. Thus, documentary and other paleoclimatological techniques have been used to reconstruct TC occurrence. This has been mostly made in the Atlantic Basin, while in the Pacific basin less attempts have been made. The aim of this paper is to provide a high-resolution chronology of typhoons and intense storms occurring in the Philippines Islands and their vicinity for the period 1566 – 1900.The original work was made by the Spanish Jesuit, Miguel Selga, at the beginning of the 20 th century. The sources, reliability and completeness of the chronology are examined critically. A total of 652 events are included, of them 533 are reported astyphoons, the rest being considered as tropical storms. For each of them the landfalling location and the track (when sufficient informationis available) have been drawn. This chronology should be considered as an indispensable step towards the determination of a final and complete typhoon record over the Western Pacific Basin.
Thus, as early as in 1668, the Jesuit Fr. F. I. Alzina wrote, after more than 30 years of experience in the Islands, the Natural History of the Visayas Islands (AMN Ms478)2. There he provides a vivid description of more than 6 pages ofbaguíos (the native word for typhoons).‘..The indians of this area call Baguio to this type of hurricane, which in other part and in the East Indies are called typhoons. And all this means a very strong tempest. There use to be in these islands so numerous and so strong that neither Virgilio in his Eneid, nor Ovidius in his Ponto, nor any other poet that I have read reaches by one thousand miles to describe their rigors or their strength. We see them very often and we suffer so much, that even after experiencing them it seem impossible to believe. To say it briefly, when one of those baguíos runs (usually one of two every year), neither the trees are safe in the center of the mountains, nor the animals in the caves, nor the men in their houses, nor the beasts in their middens, nor even the worms in their dens…’. The complete text provides a detailed description not only of the impacts of the storms, but also of the type of associated winds.
I posted the cover of Algue’s monograph on Facebook and received a link on Jan. 12, 1898 from Tiago Mallen to the Australian newspaper Barrier Mariner of Jan. 12, 1898 that reads:
“TYPHOON AND TIDAL WAVE IN THE PHILIPPINES. 7,000 Lives Lost. Mail advices, brought by the steamer Gaelic from Chinese and other ports in the Far East, contain details of the fearful destruction wrought in the Philippine Islands by the typhoon and tidal wave during October . It is estimated that 400 Europeans and 6,000 natives lost their lives, many being drowned by the rush of water, while others were killed by the violence of the wind. Several towns have been swept or blown away. The hurricane first struck the Bay of Santa Paula, and devastated the district lying to the south of it. No communication with the neighborhood was possible for two days. The hurricane reached Leyte on Oct. 12, striking Tacloban, the capital, with terrific force, and reduced it to ruins in less than half an hour. The bodies of 126 Europeans have been recovered from the fallen buildings. Four hundred natives were buried in the ruins. A score of small trading vessels and two Sydney traders were wrecked on the southern coast, and their crews drowned. At Gamoa the sea swept inland for a mile, destroying property worth seven million dollars, and many natives lost their lives. The Government prison at Tacloban was wrecked, and of the 200 rebels therein half succeeded in making their escape. The town of [Hernani] was swept away by flood, and its 5000 inhabitants are missing. The small station of Weera, near Loog, is also gone, while in Loog itself only three houses are left standing. Thousands of natives are roaming about the devastated province seeking food and medical attendance. In many cases the corpses were mutilated as though they had fallen in battle, and the expressions of their faces were most agonising.”